Show HN: Open load forecasts that beat US grid operators on 6 of 7 RTOs
Open probabilistic day-ahead load forecasts for every US balancing authority that publishes a demand series to EIA-930 (53 total). Chronos-2 fine-tuned on 7 years of public data — matches utility-internal accuracy, free and open-source.
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Fine-tuned Chronos-2 on 7 years of EIA-930 demand + ASOS temperature for every US balancing authority that publishes a load series — 53 across the three interconnections.
On a 2025 hold-out (~61,000 hours), it beats the operators' own day-ahead submissions to EIA — the production forecasts they use to schedule generation — on 6 of 7 major RTOs. Macro MAE ~40% lower. The one loss is ISO-NE, whose forecasting is just very good (24h-ahead MASE 0.34). On the same window, CAISO and SPP operator submissions did worse than "same as yesterday."
The site plots the median + 80% PI band against the operator submission, with 48h of actuals running into the forecast.
Code, model on HF, operator-comparison benchmark reproduces from one script:
- https://github.com/tylergibbs1/surge - https://huggingface.co/Tylerbry1/surge-fm-v3
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